Trade Blog

The Value of Trading a Dynamic Position – Accordion Trade Management

By Fulcrum Focus · June 22, 2010 · Filed in Market Perspective · 0


Most traders use a % per trade risk…

However…

I’ve found that % risk per time period has made a difference for me and as the account grows I add to the contracts traded and the % of equity I risk.

because…

Early on I sat through many losing trades waiting for the % stop to get hit as I ostensibly “let the trade work.”

It didn’t help that in 2002, I didn’t have a real methodology and only a vague understanding of supply and demand in the micro time frame, but I bought hook line and sinker into Van Tharp’s psychology coaching and position sizing concept and ended up “paper-cut” bleeding my account 1% at a time.

Having a market view and understanding how to gauge supply and demand allowed me to then gauge my risk dynamically per day so I wasn’t married to the hard stop on each trade…I would find that I was often correct in my understanding of turns in the market but needed flexibility in entering the trade so I scaled into with a max of three levels with a % per day risk.

‘Scaling in’ is also known as “working the trade” and it’s not a magic bullet for bad trading. It can also be known as losing your a$$ or blowing out an account by adding to a loser.

However this approach reined in by a % per day forced me to watch my criteria as opposed to hyper-focusing on nailing the perfect setup and slapping on a two point stop or % per trade stop and then feeling a false sense of security as though I were following good practices.

When I had a useful marketview (like worldview) based on data driven supply and demand (i.e. a positive expectancy) that led next to tweaking on how to best risk in the market and then those together greatly reduced my anxiety and discomfort around trading thus buoying my psychology.

Psychology and position sizing without a real methodology is akin hyping yourself up at an Amway rally. All the NLP, hypnosis, law of attraction rah rah psychology leads to grief with no payout for time and money spent.

BTW It’s not a slam of Van Tharp. I own his course and position sizing videos and it’s not that position sizing and Pyschology aren’t important. It’s that they’re useful in supporting a solid methodology.

This video (7min) below puts an even further twist on how to manage a position dynamically around a % per time risk..

To your trading success,

Fulcrum Focus



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Blue Angels Teamwork

By Fulcrum Focus · May 25, 2010 · Filed in Market Perspective · 0

Blue Angels teamwork Youtube Video
For Traders….Check out the level of performance the Blue Angels are committed to. They undergo intense screening and training. Visualization, contingency planning, attention to detail and repititious mental rehearsal shape their outstanding results!

What kind of preparation are we committed to?

Youtube Blue Angels Teamwork Part 2 of 2



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Cumulative Delta Support and Resistance

By Fulcrum Focus · May 24, 2010 · Filed in Market Perspective · 0


This short excerpt of an Emini S&P morning update highlights the use of cumulative delta to determine levels of resting inventory for support and resistance. Support and resistance based on commercial and large lot orderflow distribution patterns, not the classic (hi lo close)/3 formula…

Back to TradeBlog



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Multi-Day ‘Hidden’ Divergence – Supply and Demand Trading

By Fulcrum Focus · May 22, 2010 · Filed in Market Perspective · 0


Video excerpt from the Daily Alerts Chat room
The surefire way to empower yourself AND improve your peace of mind trading the markets is to utilize a method that just makes data-driven, logical sense! Tracking volume levels of resting inventory and initiating your trades by observing the movements of supply and demand in the order flow is such an approach.



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Trading around a Core Position

By Fulcrum Focus · May 20, 2010 · Filed in Market Perspective · 0


Here’s a short excerpt from FulcrumTrader.com’s Daily Alerts chat room about the importance of tracking resting levels of inventory, how to gauge real-time open interest, how to play inventory “grabs” and how to trade around a core position to create a better cost basis.

Scalping the Emini S&P with 1sec. NYSE Tick and Cumulative Delta Volume

By Fulcrum Focus · May 19, 2010 · Filed in Market Perspective · 0


There’s a short video below on the role of the 1second NYSE $TICK and the Cumulative Delta Volume indicator from Investor RT for scalping the Eminis. The video has the TICK and the Emini S&P(ES), but the TICK works well with the Russell(TF) and the Dow Mini(YM) as well.

Certainly we like to believe we have a superior way of perceiving the markets. It may not be perfect, or the “best” way, but it is demonstrable and easily examined. We invite you to see what we’re about here on our Intro page. Or perhaps join in the chat-room. Watch the daily alerts yourself and judge the efficacy of our approach. Then, as you find value there, you can choose to immerse yourself in the full course. Which is, by design, not a static DVD.
The Delta Volume Analysis course is flexible to ensure we can meet the needs of various learning styles and also to respond to those who would like more in-depth explanations of certain topics such as cumulative delta, delta zones, delta divergences, etc. We’ve already added updates and new lessons to make sure those that have trusted us receive our best efforts in conveying the concepts presented.

All the best in life and trading!



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Once Upon a Time in the Pits: ‘Floored’

By Fulcrum Focus · May 10, 2010 · Filed in Market Perspective · 0


The movie ‘Floored’ was brought up in the chat room today by T. or maybe G., so I looked it up and watched the trailer and I thought to myself… “In light of the Greek crisis and the “Mystery Plunge” recently in the “safe” electronic exchanges, will the floor trader make a comeback?”

There’s no telling, but probably not and there’s a sadness in that.

Here’s a review of ‘Floored’ by Jacob Bunge of Dow Jones Newswires with a link to the trailer at the bottom.

CHICAGO (Dow Jones)–The Gene Siskel Film Center transformed into a trading pit Friday night, as Chicago’s derivatives trading community migrated from the floors to the theater for the premier of a documentary on the vanishing business.

The screening of “Floored,” a film chronicling the glory and subsequent decline of the art-cum-bloodsport honed in the pits of Chicago’s exchanges, drew a sold-out audience that included traders, local celebrities and combinations of the two.

“You could come in and get rich overnight, or you could lose, but there was opportunity,” said Rick Santelli, a CNBC Business News commentator and veteran futures trader who broadcasts from the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade, at the screening Friday. “It’s a bittersweet story.”

The film, a three-year project by filmmaker James Allen Smith, tells the pugnacious tale of futures and options trading through the clerks, brokers and market makers that helped transform Chicago’s exchanges into a global center for managing commodities, currencies, interest rates and stock options.

Set against a backdrop of garish trading jackets and a soundtrack of shouting, past and present floor traders in the film wistfully recall the days when fortunes were made and lost daily in Chicago’s pits, a story replete with drug abuse, wrecked marriages, crippling stress and the occasional fling with a Playboy Playmate.

In their mid-1990s heyday, according to Smith’s film, 10,000 traders packed the floors of the city, a number that has since dwindled to about 1,000 as the rise of electronic trading supplanted the pits as the key source of liquidity in derivatives markets.

If there is a villain menacing the swaggering heroes of “Floored,” it is the computer, described alternately as a “virus,” a form of “cheating” and a “vile invention” by the steadily shrinking ranks of those committed to the open outcry profession. A portion of the film highlighting Chicago’s burgeoning electronic trading shops drew grumbles and jeers from the audience.

Some floor traders like Joseph Gibbons, one of the film’s producers, successfully jumped to screen trading, a realm that “Floored” depicts as no less intense or profane or profitable–but far less visceral than the pits, where spittle flies and the competition to buy and sell occasionally turned physical.
Beyond the usual shoving and poking of pens, traders in the film tell of fistfights in the plaza outside the Chicago Board Options Exchange and one incident that ended with a trader biting another’s nose.

“We were warriors, but we were also a great community of friends,” said Scott Cole, who described floor trading as his family’s business, at the screening Friday.

They are also a group clinging to a diminished slice of the American dream that allowed blue-collar Chicago kids, many possessing little education beyond a high school diploma, to make a living on par with doctors and lawyers–at least for a while.

“It’s a story that needed to be told,” said Kenny Ford, who still works the cattle pits, where electronic trading has yet to render the floor obsolete. “This was the greatest time in our lives.”

-By Jacob Bunge, Dow Jones Newswires; (312) 750 4117; jacob.bunge@dowjones.com

Here’s the link for the trailer http://flooredthemovie.com/community/?page_id=11



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‘Global debt is a holocaust waiting to happen.’

By Fulcrum Focus · May 8, 2010 · Filed in Market Perspective · 0

Here’s a partial reprint of a great blogpost by the eccentric Stuart Wilde about the Greek crisis…be sure to check out the Greek lifestyle snippet from BBC’s Malcolm Brabant at the bottom…

Greece lied for ten years about their accounts falsifying their books essentially defrauding banks that lent them money, and their Eurozone partners.

Then the ‘souvlaki hit the fan’ and short-term interest rates to Greece jumped almost overnight to a prohibitive 23%, everyone else in the Eurozone pays 3%. Lenders wanted big returns to lend money to big liars. Greek creditworthiness is lower than that of both Lebanon and Guatemala.


The Greeks are very sweet and their country is very pretty but the Greek crisis is a spiritual crisis, one of importance as they paid themselves fancy benefits and pensions and they embarked on billions in military spending and infrastructure projects that they couldn’t pay for. Now they want the people in the Eurozone that they defrauded to give them 110 billion to escape total breakdown.

Portugal is in trouble and so is Spain where unemployment is 20% and the UK has an even higher debt ratio than Greece. People in the UK on welfare with kids can get between £5000-£8000 a month tax free in housing benefits and cash allowances, it’s handouts gone mad.

Average wages in the UK is £531.00 a week then tax is taken from that, most workers take home between £1300-£1500 a month after tax, so the system is ludicrous. It feeds the addiction of entitlement and it encourages welfare tourists to the UK people that come from other poorer countries in the EU to sign up for the cushy life on the British glucose drip. The insanity has to crack in the end as Government has to borrow money to make these mega-handouts, it now owes almost one thousand billions pounds.*

http://www.debtbombshell.com/

Greek wages will gradually be cut 30%, it will hurt the workers terribly because Greek prices are already very high, but even such a cut will only be a small blip on their total debt screen. Greece can’t really escape total collapse. They aren’t going to do ‘horsebox’ willingly, but it may be forced upon them. When people’s importance is assailed they go a bit nuts. I feel very sorry for the Greek people but the wages of importance lead to collapse and extreme poverty.

Contagion in financial markets is fancy word for the ‘knock on’ effect, as more and more global lenders get scared as they wake up to what dodgy loans they have placed on their books; real estate, corporations, Governments, no one is going to pay in the end, interest rates will rocket. There is not enough money in the world to bail everyone out. It’s the Grand Lies coming home to roost.

Greece is the tip of a massive global mountain of denial, swelled egos, and feigned importance; smoke and mirrors accounting, government fraud and criminality that will come down like a house of cards over the next year or two.

And as far as the UK goes…
The UK can’t default on its Government debts as it is not in the Euro, so the UK Gov’ can print as many pounds out of thin air as it needs to. Of course, the value of the pound will tank, but they only have to look honest, they don’t actually have to be honest.

Here’s the funny snippet from the BBC correspondent in Greece.

Malcolm Brabant BBC News, Athens

On Planet Greece, some civil servants get a bonus for turning up to work on time. Foresters get a bonus for working outdoors. At least they show up.

There are civil servants called ghost workers because they never go into the office, they head to a second job and still claim a state salary. They can’t get sacked, because a civil service post is for life. Unless the incumbent decides to retire in his or her forties, with a pension.

And the government can continue paying for the afterlife.

Unmarried and divorced daughters of civil servants are entitled to collect their dead parents pensions. Another lucrative sinecure is to belong to a state committee. The government has no idea how many there are.

It has been estimated that they have 10,000 employees and cost nearly £200m a year, and that includes the committee to manage a lake that dried up 80 years ago.



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April 21st 2010 Emini Support and Resistance levels

By Fulcrum Focus · April 21, 2010 · Filed in Daily Review · 0

The Market should be able to test highs today if the US Dollar keeps pulling back through the cash session…….AAPL blowout numbers had indicies rallying early in the after hour session last night…..EU opened but was unable to press new highs with the US Dollar on a strong run. Ok, now to the levels of held inventory….

ES has the following RESISTANCE levels with resting SHORT inventory for today………..1210.50 to 1207.50 still Delta Zone of resting SHORT inventory with a new level within that range of 1209.50 from last nights After Hours session. Market back to over 30,000 contracts held in upper 3 points of range. Trade today to the 1209.00 level or higher can be tracked for a Multi-day Delta Divergence SHORT.

ES has the following support levels today with resting LONG inventory…………1201.75 and 1201.25 minor levels, regular levels at 1197.00, 1194.00, 1190.25, 1181.00, 1179.75, 1170,00 is key support level with decent accumulated LONG inventory and 1166.25 is next lower key support level.

Also, I will look to sell 6C’s today with any trading above the 1.0065′s level into first sell response after that level hit…sold 1.0055′s last night…pulled out one lower held position already at the 1.0027′s

Strap your helmet on…It’s still dangerous even if you know what’s going on……



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March 2nd Support and Resistance Levels

By FulcrumTrader · March 2, 2010 · Filed in Misc. · 0

The near term resistance level for today is at the 1122.75’s level. The market as of this time is still holding about 12,000 contracts SHORT with the after hours session rally to the 1122′s area of price. There are no price levels above the 1122′s that hold any remaining significant SHORT inventory.

Our near term support levels for today start at the 1112.00’s with next initial levels at the 1107.00′s and 1104.50′s. Next level is the 1102.25′s and this level has a significant amount of LONG inventory still being held left over from Friday’s Delta Volume Distribution. The next lower level of inventory support is located at the 1099.50’s, 1096.25’s, and 1095.00’s. Our next key area of price is a Delta Zone of resting LONG inventory held in the 1087.50’s to 1084.50’s zone of price. Last levels of LONG inventory support are located at the 1068.00’s, 1065.50’s, and last level at the 1060.50’s.



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